Expansionist Statements of Russian Naval High Command Are Cause for Concern

Confirming possibilities raised posted September of last year on Unequal Time's sister blog, Dancing With Bears, the Russian Navy has announced its intention to establish a continued naval presence in international waters outside of Russia's own maritime jurisdiction.  As reported by Russia Today's English online edition (by way of our friend at the Naval Open Source Intelligence blog), Deputy Chief of Russia's Armed Forces Staff, Anatoly Nogovitsyn, is quoted as saying:

"The political decision on this matter has been made. Bases will settle down on Sokorta Island (Yemen), in Tartus (Syria) and Tripoli (Libya). Now it’s very difficult to say when these bases will appear in these countries, but in several years time it undoubtedly will happen. From both the economic and the technical military point of view, there is no other way to solve the problem of our Navy’s regular presence in distant sea areas for the protection of Russia’s national interests."

Although the Russian navy's global reach has been continuing its policy of forced contraction in recent years - as evidenced by their withdrawal of the strategically valuable Vietnamese port of Cam Ranh in 2000 - mainly due to a lack of funding stemming from the weak Russian economy.  Recent growth in Russia's defense industry, combined with an emphasis on power projection should awaken the minds of Western policymakers to the very real possibility that there is an endgame in progress.

Despite its massive size, Russia has many of the same problems of historic powers that had to rely on maritime superiority as a means of promoting domestic economic prosperity.  Nearly surrounded by a host of allies of convenience or outright enemies, the Russian Federation cannot build its power on a foundation of over dependable over-land or straight-line airborne routes.

There are reasons to believe that the Russians have shifted policy to one that is drastically more expansionist.

• the Russians have been given permission by the Icelandic government use of the former U.S. airbase at Keflavik, Iceland (read here)
• Russian and Venezuelan naval vessels participated in joint exercises in the Caribbean in the fall of 2008 (read here)
• Russian Federation commits to full funding for completion of GLONASS global satellite navigation system, a system that in addition to its surface navigation capabilities was originally designed as a ballistic missile targeting system (read here)
• Joint exercises in December 2008 with Indian navy ships in the Indian Ocean to train on carrier-destroying tactics (read here)

There are more data points on this curve; these items must be considered along with a tidal wave of arms agreements, mutual defense agreements, and other developments that have been made between Russian and many other nations across the globe.  All indications would point to some intention by the sleeping bear to enhance its power position across the globe particularly in their commitment to making GLONASS fully operational.

As Americans begin to assess the incoming Obama administration, they should do with a firm understanding of the geopolitical events currently unfolding.

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Cross-posted at Unequal Time.

Technorati Tags: foreign affairs,Russia,The New Cold War

In With the Old, Out With the New

Is it going to become clear to the public-at-large that Russia in a a phase of expansion.  This post at Naval Open Source Intelligence is just one in a string of startling developments in Russian force projection.

In an official lunch with foreign diplomats, Icelandic President Olafur Ragnar Grimsson shocked neighboring Nordic countries with inviting Russia to take use of the strategically important airbase.
Foreign diplomats hardly believed what they heard when the Icelandic president said that his country needs “new friends” and that Russia should be invited to take use of the old U.S. airbase of Keflavik.
In the lunch which took place in Reykjavik last Friday, Mr. Grimsson accused neighboring countries of failing to support the crisis-ridden Iceland, newspaper Dagbladet reports with reference to Klassekampen.

Stunning.

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Technorati Tags: air power,Iceland,Russia

Venezuela Agrees to Putin's Offer to Help Build Nuclear Reactor

In my opinion, the domino theory is still very much in effect, especially in South America.  Welcome to the multi-polar world.

The United States needs a dramatically reshaped doctrine to deal with the blossoming Russian problem.

Joint Russian-Venezuelan Naval Exercise May Include Live Fire Missile Drills

As reported by ITAR-TASS, the Russian government wire service, a group of four Russian naval vessels left the port of Murmansk today en route to Venezuela to participate in joint exercises in the Carribean Sea. 

The detachment is comprised of a missile cruiser, a large antisubmarine ship and two auxiliary vessels, according to the Russian news agency.

The report also states that the naval group's mission is to carry out combat training exercises as well as missile and artillery firings.

Source: http://arms-tass.su/?page=article&aid=60343&cid=24

Russian Federation and Cuba Agree to Build Space Center on Cuban Soil

According to defense-related subdivision the Russian Federation government run news agency, Russia has agreed to "assist" Cuba in the creation of a space center in the Caribbean nation.

It was not clear in the report what the exact use of the center would be and there was no timeline for when the space center would be operational.

In the negotiations, Cuba guaranteed Russia navigation rights in its territory, in addition to securing use of the GLONASS navigation system.

Source: http://arms-tass.su/?page=article&aid=60150&cid=125

Russians Make Upgrades to Syrian Port for Future Use

Syrian and Russian Naval Commanders Agree to Cooperation

The defense division of the Russian government-run news agency ITAR-TASS reported late last week that the crew of a Russian auxiliary vessel - the Kiel 158 - visited the Syrian port of Tarsus.  The crew performed work to allow the port to operate as a base of supply and repair to the port, which was originally created to service Soviet ships operating in the Mediterranean, will now again be operational in the service of the Russian fleet operating in the same region.

In the same report it was also confirmed that in meetings between Russian and Syrian naval commanders, an intention for future cooperation was agreed.  The form of cooperation was not made clear in the press release.

Source:  http://arms-tass.su/?page=article&aid=59920&cid=121

Web Page Translation available through babelfish.yahoo.com.

Will the Next President Inherit a New Cold War?

Presidential Candidates Must Be Quizzed on How They Would Handle an Expansionist Russia

America is now fully engulfed in election fever.  Republicans are energized by their ticket, Democrats have tasted blood in their own mouths and are responding to the ring of the bell.

The horse race, however, is obscuring from our view important events that will inform voters on Election Day.  Those who declare that a President McCain would merely execute the Bush foreign policy ignore one obvious and important reality - President Bush has not had to develop a comprehensive foreign policy doctrine to address a post-Soviet expansionist Russia.

Grappling with the enigma of Russia's new foreign policy will be the number one challenge of our next president.  It intersects with all other concerns.  Without safety and security, economic concerns and other social issues become secondary.  There is a reason that Thomas Jefferson ordered his causes as "life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness". There is no duty higher than meeting the potential threat of a waking Russian bear. 

At its most benign, Russia intends only to achieve some measure of energy security with its new policy and it has no interest in engaging in a full-scale Cold War.  The malignant and more probable reality is that the old Soviet heart of Russia's power elite sings again with the dream of expansion.  Emboldened by America's low standing in the halls of power around the world, it is likely that they have foreseen a window of opportunity that must be seized.

Russia's actions - in the recent days, weeks and months - are not isolated, and should be seen as part of a broader strategy.  They can also not be excused any longer as appeasement of hard-liners, as some have suggested in the past.  It also makes very little sense to read Russian actions as a temporary challenge to the United States' response to Russia's invasion of Georgia, namely sending our warships into the Black Sea.

The Venezuelan-Russian alliance could also be seen as advantageous for a Russia that has its mind set on influencing the world's energy resource supply and delivery.  But with Venezuela being a staunch enemy to the United States, Russia has no fear in "losing" any battle for oil rights or access to supply to America.

By deduction, we know there is more at work within the Russian strategy.  

In interpersonal terms, the relationship between Venezuela and Russia has just gone from holding hands to sleeping over.  If Russia was only leaving a toothbrush in the bathroom cabinet we could rest at night.  Tu-160 Blackjack long-range strategic bombers, capable of carrying nuclear payloads, landed in Venezuela yesterday, with an official explanation that they will be conducting training flights.  That's a toothbrush with operational range capable of delivering a first-strike nuclear payload Washington, D.C.

The Tu-160s arrived two days after joint Venezuelan-Russian naval exercises were announced for later this year - to be held in the Caribbean - and the same day that Venezuelan strongman President Hugo Chavez issued a 72-hour order to the United States ambassador to leave the country.

Despite official statements to the contrary, undoubtedly it has already occurred to officials at the State Department and the Department of Defense that Russia may be establishing its right to conduct military training exercises in our hemisphere for the purpose of establishing a more permanent military presence over time. 

In the past, it has only been the ability of the United States to project its power that has given us leverage in moments of diplomatic crisis.  What effect would a similar Russian ability have on international relations?  It would be foolish to assume that Russia has no such intentions of following the model the United States has already demonstrated to be a pattern for power expansion.

Understated comment of the week: It would be destabilizing.

Even if the Russians do not establish a more permanent military presence in South America, it has been clear over the preceding year that they are very comfortable in taking openly hostile statements in opposition to United States policy.  The knee-jerk response to our designs to build a missile defense system in Europe should have reminded policymakers that Russia is still very aware that its nuclear arsenal gives it power. 

Even a rusting giant can earn superpower respect at the negotiating table when their words are backed by atomic weapons.  The only piece that has been missing from Russia's application of its yet-to-be-determined foreign policy doctrine, was that the world had assumed that Russia was more concerned with economic growth than power expansion.  By invading Georgia, the threat that Russia is capable of using force to achieve its goals was given credibility.

We can leave the intricate machine of policy implementation and formation up to experts who have far more information than those of us without a daily briefing could ever gather.  We cannot, though, put off the hitting the presidential candidates on the "what ifs". Answers to these hard questions are not optional, and journalists should not accept less than directness or shy away from explaining to their readers, viewers and listeners why these topics are important.  The stakes are too high to move forward in blissful ignorance.

This is cross-posted at Unequal Time (http://unequal-time.blogspot.com).