Dancing With Bears is merging with sister blog Unequal Time for improved efficiency in coverage

 Dancing With Bears is excited to announce that we are making an exciting move to enhance our usefulness to readers.  In order to provide better visual appeal and ease of navigation, the site will be merged with its sister blog - Unequal Time - and run on a WordPress engine with a magazine-style theme to offer a better look at available content from the front page.

The new site can be found at its own domain: WWW.UNEQUALTIME.COM. 

All of the content from the Blogger site has been imported, and no new content will be posted here.  Because Dancing with Bears is folding into Unequal Time, this new site will feature a section dedicated to covering defense, national security and foreign affairs in the same way that DWB did for its readers.

I hope all of you bookmark the new site and help us to make it a daily stop on your search for information and commentary.

Expansionist Statements of Russian Naval High Command Are Cause for Concern

Confirming possibilities raised posted September of last year on Unequal Time's sister blog, Dancing With Bears, the Russian Navy has announced its intention to establish a continued naval presence in international waters outside of Russia's own maritime jurisdiction.  As reported by Russia Today's English online edition (by way of our friend at the Naval Open Source Intelligence blog), Deputy Chief of Russia's Armed Forces Staff, Anatoly Nogovitsyn, is quoted as saying:

"The political decision on this matter has been made. Bases will settle down on Sokorta Island (Yemen), in Tartus (Syria) and Tripoli (Libya). Now it’s very difficult to say when these bases will appear in these countries, but in several years time it undoubtedly will happen. From both the economic and the technical military point of view, there is no other way to solve the problem of our Navy’s regular presence in distant sea areas for the protection of Russia’s national interests."

Although the Russian navy's global reach has been continuing its policy of forced contraction in recent years - as evidenced by their withdrawal of the strategically valuable Vietnamese port of Cam Ranh in 2000 - mainly due to a lack of funding stemming from the weak Russian economy.  Recent growth in Russia's defense industry, combined with an emphasis on power projection should awaken the minds of Western policymakers to the very real possibility that there is an endgame in progress.

Despite its massive size, Russia has many of the same problems of historic powers that had to rely on maritime superiority as a means of promoting domestic economic prosperity.  Nearly surrounded by a host of allies of convenience or outright enemies, the Russian Federation cannot build its power on a foundation of over dependable over-land or straight-line airborne routes.

There are reasons to believe that the Russians have shifted policy to one that is drastically more expansionist.

• the Russians have been given permission by the Icelandic government use of the former U.S. airbase at Keflavik, Iceland (read here)
• Russian and Venezuelan naval vessels participated in joint exercises in the Caribbean in the fall of 2008 (read here)
• Russian Federation commits to full funding for completion of GLONASS global satellite navigation system, a system that in addition to its surface navigation capabilities was originally designed as a ballistic missile targeting system (read here)
• Joint exercises in December 2008 with Indian navy ships in the Indian Ocean to train on carrier-destroying tactics (read here)

There are more data points on this curve; these items must be considered along with a tidal wave of arms agreements, mutual defense agreements, and other developments that have been made between Russian and many other nations across the globe.  All indications would point to some intention by the sleeping bear to enhance its power position across the globe particularly in their commitment to making GLONASS fully operational.

As Americans begin to assess the incoming Obama administration, they should do with a firm understanding of the geopolitical events currently unfolding.

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Cross-posted at Unequal Time.

Technorati Tags: foreign affairs,Russia,The New Cold War

In With the Old, Out With the New

Is it going to become clear to the public-at-large that Russia in a a phase of expansion?  This post at Naval Open Source Intelligence is just one in a string of startling developments in Russian force projection.

In an official lunch with foreign diplomats, Icelandic President Olafur Ragnar Grimsson shocked neighboring Nordic countries with inviting Russia to take use of the strategically important airbase.

Foreign diplomats hardly believed what they heard when the Icelandic president said that his country needs “new friends” and that Russia should be invited to take use of the old U.S. airbase of Keflavik.

In the lunch which took place in Reykjavik last Friday, Mr. Grimsson accused neighboring countries of failing to support the crisis-ridden Iceland, newspaper Dagbladet reports with reference to Klassekampen.

Stunning.

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Technorati Tags: air power,Iceland,Russia

In With the Old, Out With the New

Is it going to become clear to the public-at-large that Russia in a a phase of expansion.  This post at Naval Open Source Intelligence is just one in a string of startling developments in Russian force projection.

In an official lunch with foreign diplomats, Icelandic President Olafur Ragnar Grimsson shocked neighboring Nordic countries with inviting Russia to take use of the strategically important airbase.
Foreign diplomats hardly believed what they heard when the Icelandic president said that his country needs “new friends” and that Russia should be invited to take use of the old U.S. airbase of Keflavik.
In the lunch which took place in Reykjavik last Friday, Mr. Grimsson accused neighboring countries of failing to support the crisis-ridden Iceland, newspaper Dagbladet reports with reference to Klassekampen.

Stunning.

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Technorati Tags: air power,Iceland,Russia

What's More Important than The Economy?

This report comes from The Debka Review:

Russian live missile fire air exercise near Alaska
DEBKAfile Special Report
4 Oct.: Not since 1984, just before the fall of the Soviet Union, has Russia ventured to launch dozens of nuclear bombers for an exercise in which Tu-95 Bear bombers will fire live cruise missiles. Exercise Stability 2008 will take place Oct.-6-12 over sub-Arctic Russia, uncomfortably close to Alaska.

The exercise is part of a month-long war game described by Russian air force spokesman Col. Vladimir Drik as “practicing the strategic deployment of the armed forces including the nuclear triad.”

As part of the exercise, our sources reported exclusively on Oct. 1, that Russian ships armed with nuclear missiles will dock at Syrian ports Oct. 8, on the eve of Yom Kippur, before continuing to the Caribbean for joint maneuvers with Venezuela

Read the full story here.

If you didn't hear anything about this in the media, it's because the entire nation is distracted by the presidential campaign and the economic crisis.  The downplaying of the Russian threat within the dialogue of the election is actually prudent - public statements or shoe-pounding will set a Cold War into high gear and make it harder to pursue other foreign policy strategies.  The media's ignoring of these events, including:

• The Russian Navy's maneuvers in the Caribbean, also to include live fire missile drills
• Russian-Venezuelan military cooperation and sales of newest generation military tech to Syria, Iran and Venezuela, to name a few buying nations
• Russia's intentions to build a space complex in Cuba, a potential back door for military missile hardware and technology
• A large funding increase to allow Russia to complete the expansion and upgrades of GLONASS, their global satellite navigation system
• Suspected sales of S-300 anti-aircraft and anti-missile missile systems to Iran, to be used in defense of a strike against Iran's nuclear facilities

There are many reasons to suspect that Russia may have determined that their fastest route to economic strength and international relevance is to become a hegemonic power, in much the same that the United States did in the wake of the Spanish-American War and following World War II.

There will be more posts on this as additional events occur.

Cross-posted at Unequal Time.

Venezuela Agrees to Putin's Offer to Help Build Nuclear Reactor

In my opinion, the domino theory is still very much in effect, especially in South America.  Welcome to the multi-polar world.

The United States needs a dramatically reshaped doctrine to deal with the blossoming Russian problem.

Russian Federation and Venezuela Sign Energy Cooperation Agreements

Blackjack Bomber Visits Should Not be Removed from the Foreign Policy Assessment

Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez and Russian Federation President Dmitry Medvedev today signed a pact to cooperate on energy issues, specifically to form a relationship between the RF's Gazprom and Venezuela's Petroleos de Venezuela.

In light of recent arms sales to Venezuela, the energy agreement further heightens the possibility the Russian intentions are to develop a long-term sphere of influence in our hemisphere, possibly to include military bases. 

A footnote to the Russian "training mission" involving the Tu-160 Blacjack bombers earlier this month was that they left behind the ground equipment and service personnel to allow the Tu-160s to use the Libertador airfield at any point in the future.

According to official reports, the training mission also Blackjack included the first ever mid-air refueling of a Russian strategic bomber, adding intercontinental operating range to the capabilities US planners must consider when assessing the nature of Russia's current foreign policy.